Situational Analysis

Lesotho is a small, landlocked country with limited natural resources and a narrow production and export base.  Aside from subsistence agriculture, the garment sector plays a critical role in generating employment, output and exports.  The economy is highly open, with imports amounting to about 90% of GDP, and depends heavily on inflows of worker’s remittances and receipts from the Southern African Customs Union (SACU). While the Global Economic Crisis has affected different countries in varying degrees, it is widely recognized that it  threatens to reverse some of the progress made in the various dimensions of human development and can have  potentially serious impact on the achievement of MDGs. As many other developing countries, Lesotho has been affected by the global economic and financial crisis. Among the factors that make Lesotho exceedingly vulnerable to the current global situation is a substantial decline in SACU revenues (a drop of nearly 56% in 2010/2011 over the allocation of 2009/2010[1]) which poses a serious threat to fiscal and external sustainability in Lesotho which would undermine the Government’s efforts to accelerate economic growth and poverty reduction.

Progress on MDGs in Lesotho is somewhat mixed; while universal primary education and gender equality have shown positive trends, poverty continues to affect approximately 56% of the population, HIV/AIDs impacts 23.2% of the population, rates of child and maternal mortality continue to be high and may even be at a risk of reversal, and a number of challenges still persist in providing sustainable access to safe drinking water and sanitation.

In the current situation, falling public revenues along with reduced prospects for raising finances through borrowings will constrict the fiscal space needed to maintain spending on health, education and social protection. Therefore, the impacts of the crisis on the MDGs may be quite pronounced, and may become manifest with a time lag.

Objective of the Consultancy

The overall objective of the consultancy is to assess the impact of the current global economic crisis on Lesotho’s economy with particular focus on its implications for the achievement of MDGs. Further an analysis of the impact of dwindling revenues on programmatic interventions for the poor and vulnerable groups needs to be carried out so as to propose ways of mitigating the impact. The analysis should be grounded in the overarching principles of human rights, gender, equity and Vision 2020. Therefore, the assignment would aim to:

a)  Document the policies, strategies, actions, studies undertaken and/or ongoing to understand, record and mitigate the impacts of the crisis on the poor, children, women and other vulnerable groups;

b)  Analyze the adequacy of Government and stakeholder initiatives in response to the crisis and their effects in particular on the poor and the vulnerable groups.

c)  Propose alternative courses of action, further studies, strategic recommendations and/or policy adjustments to more effectively mitigate the effects of the crisis.

d)  Provide conclusions and policy implications - with a watch list of Government policy and budget interventions or issues that need to be urgently addressed to prevent deterioration in human development indices.

Scope of Work

UN, Lesotho seeks the services of a consultant to work with Task Force on MDGs to document the impact of the global economic crises on achievement of MDGs. The analysis would focus on the following areas:

(a) Determine the channels of transmission, e.g. declines in household income, a steep decline in export earnings, falling remittances, ODA; other capital flows etc.

(b) Assess the implications of the global economic crisis on the determined channels of transmission;

(c) Establish the immediate medium and long-term impact on the national economy and population groups;

(d) Analyse the response capacity of the country to such a crisis, taking into account both socio-economic and governance components;

(e) Determine country-specific exacerbating factors;

(f) Review and align list of indicators for the assessment of impacts and vulnerability;

(g) Estimate the impacts on MDGs, for instance by undertaking comparisons of current ‘leading’ indicators—such as growth rates, revenues and expenditures—with pre-crisis trends and also drawing upon experiences from other countries ;

(h) Recommend mitigation measures;

(i)  Review the needs assessment done in 2005 for achieving MDGs in Lesotho in the light of new evidence; and

(j)  Update the summary cost tables showing total cost estimates for all the MDGs up to 2015;

Specific Tasks:

·    Analyze available information, draw from and build a comprehensive body of knowledge on the impact of the crises and analyze the gaps in terms of adequacy of policy, programmes, funding, knowledge gaps etc with recommendations and strategies towards mitigation of the impact.

·        Review existing data on household budget surveys, Continuous Multipurpose Surveys (CMS), Vulnerability studies etc. as well as seek out real time evidence and simulate to obtain the real picture of what is happening on the ground.

·    Provide trends analysis, using 2000 as the baseline and make projections up to 2015.

·    Outline New/Scale-up programmes/policies in response to these crises by the Government and different development partners. This would include the Macro-economic environment, Food Security, Areas of Water and Environment; Health and Nutrition; Education, Gender and Social Protection.

Methodology:

The consultant is expected to indicate an appropriate methodology and strategy (e.g. simulation models like MAMS for MDGs) to assess the implications of the global economic crisis on MDGs in Lesotho. The methodology should employ both quantitative and qualitative approaches focusing on household poverty, human development as well as social protection issues. The consultant is expected to elaborate the methodology to be used in his/her expression of interest submission. Consultations with all relevant stakeholders like academic institutions, think tanks, NGOs, Civil society, local communities, development partners, in addition to Government and UN Agencies will be an integral part of the process. Use of figures, tables and maps to illustrate the impact of multiple crises is mandatory.

Expected Output:

The consultant is expected to produce an analytical report outlining the impact, identifying the drivers of vulnerability and recommending appropriate strategies to mitigate the impact of the crisis as also suggesting preventive measures to cushion the country in case of future crises. The report should focus on messages that, while being backed by evidence, are compelling, clear and easy to communicate. The report will be validated at a stakeholders meeting before being accepted as an input for the 2010 MDG report for Lesotho. The inputs received at the stakeholders meeting will be collated and presented in the report before it is finalized and published by the UN.

Duration of Consultancy:

To achieve the objectives outlined above the consultant is expected to commit a total of 30/45 person-days to the consultancy. These days include the period for designing the study, data collection, analysis and preparation of the final report.

Required Competencies:

·  A Masters or Postgraduate Degree in Economics, Social sciences or related fields

·  Extensive experience in public policy issues, impact and expenditure analysis

·  Experience in welfare analysis including poverty and inequality analysis

·  Excellent facilitation, coordination  and analytical skills

·  Knowledge/involvement in current social sector developments

·  Familiarity with Lesotho’s Vision 2020, national development processes and policy documents

·  Knowledge and demonstrated experience with human rights approach to programming/community capacity development would be an asset.

Mandatory Conditions:

·  Liaisons: UN, GoL, development partners, academic institutions, NGOs, CSOs, think tanks etc.

. Technical guidance: Combined UN-GoL MDG Task Force

·  Approval of intermediate and final products: MDG Task Force, BoS, MoFDP

·  The consultant is expected to commit fully to this task and respect the attached rules and regulations governing UN consultants.

·  Payment to the Consultant will be made @ 30% of the consultancy amount upon receipt of the first draft report and final payment upon satisfactory completion of assignment.

Remuneration:

This will be an output-based consultancy that will be remunerated at UN rates negotiated between the Consultant and the UNDP.

Applications should be submitted by email on or before 21st May 2010 to registry.ls@undp.org OR hand delivered to UNDP, 3rd Floor, UN House, Maseru 0100

Only short listed candidates will be responded to.